Maintenance calories are the estimated intake that would keep weight roughly stable at the selected activity level. The target is that estimate minus your chosen daily gap.
Real weight change is not perfectly linear. Metabolism, activity, food measurement, water balance, sleep, health conditions, and medication can all move the result. The CDC describes gradual loss of roughly one to two pounds per week as more likely to be maintained, but that population guidance is not an individual guarantee.
If you use the estimate, compare it with several weeks of real-world trend rather than reacting to one day. If you feel unwell, have a clinician-directed nutrition plan, or are unsure whether a deficit is appropriate, use qualified individual guidance instead.